The confluence of evidence across all provided charts points unequivocally to a powerful, secular bullish trend in USD/JPY. The pair is currently challenging a multi-decade resistance level, and the underlying structure—supported by momentum, pattern analysis, and Elliott Wave counts—strongly suggests a high probability of a successful and significant breakout to the upside. We are not at the end of a move; we are likely in the strongest phase of a new long-term impulse wave.

The Long-Term Secular View (Weekly Chart 1)

This chart, spanning from the 1980s, provides the most critical context. The price is pressuring the horizontal resistance level around 153.88. This is not just a minor level; it represents a multi-decade cap on the market. The pair is in a clear macro uptrend since bottoming in the 2011-2012 period, supported by a long-term ascending trendline (in green). A decisive weekly close above this ~154.00 barrier would be a significant secular event. It would signal the end of a decades-long consolidation/bear market phase and the beginning of a new macro regime, opening the door to “blue sky” territory with the next major resistance levels being historically distant (e.g., 1980s/1990s highs, potentially 160.00 and higher).

The Medium-Term Pattern (Weekly Chart 2)

This chart provides a clearer view of the price action over the last few years. The price has formed a large symmetrical triangle over the past year. This is typically a continuation pattern. The price is currently breaking out of the apex of this triangle to the upside. This breakout is occurring precisely as it tests the long-term secular resistance from Chart 1, a sign of immense underlying pressure. A floor of support is well-established. The red dashed line around 150.00 acts as a key psychological and structural support, while multiple ascending trendlines (green) confirm that dips are being aggressively bought.

Daily Momentum & Sentiment (Daily Chart 3)

This daily chart confirms the health and strength of the immediate trend. The price is “riding the upper band.” This is a classic sign of powerful, sustained bullish momentum, indicating strength rather than an overbought condition that’s due for a sharp reversal. The 20-period moving average (middle band) is acting as a clean dynamic support. TheZ-Score oscillator is firmly in positive territory (~0.79) and rising, confirming momentum. Crucially, it is not yet at an extreme overbought level (which appears to be above 2.0 on this chart). This suggests there is still significant “fuel in the tank” for this rally to continue. The histogram on the Sentiment Indicator is solidly blue, confirming that the underlying market sentiment aligns with the bullish price action.

Elliott Wave Structure (10-Day Chart 4)

This Elliott Wave count provides a compelling “roadmap” for the current and future trend. The chart identifies a large-degree impulse (Wave I) followed by a deep, multi-year correction (Wave II). We are now in the midst of a new, large-degree Wave III. Wave III is typically the longest and most powerful wave in an impulse sequence. Within this large Wave III, the chart shows we have completed sub-waves 1 and 2 and are now in the middle of sub-wave 3.

This is the most bullish interpretation possible. It means we are in the “wave within the wave” (3 of III) that is characteristically the strongest. This count strongly invalidates any near-term bearish thesis and suggests that any pullbacks should be shallow (e.g., a future Wave 4) and represent buying opportunities.

Relative Strength (Ratio Chart 5)

This custom ratio chart (US Dollar Index Traders Total / Yen Traders Total) provides a fundamental or sentiment tailwind. The ratio is in a clear uptrend from its recent 2024 lows, indicating that the components/positioning driving the US Dollar are systematically outperforming those driving the Yen. The ratio (at 0.79) has significant room to run before it reaches its next major horizontal resistance areas (~0.95 and ~1.15). This underlying relative strength provides further support for the spot USD/JPY exchange rate to continue its ascent.

Overview of the Approach

The bias is unequivocally long. All analytical methods (long-term trend, medium-term patterns, daily momentum, Elliott Wave, and relative strength) are in alignment, all pointing to continued and significant upside. USD/JPY is in the process of a major secular breakout. A confirmed weekly close above 154.00 is the final signal. The bullish Elliott Wave thesis would be called into question on a break below the recent sub-wave 2 low (around 146.50), but a more significant “danger” signal would be a break back below the 150.00 support. With a breakout, initial targets would be derived from Fibonacci extensions of the Wave I and sub-wave 1 moves. The next logical chart-based resistance is the 1990 high near 160.35, followed by levels not seen since the 1980s.

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Disclaimer:

The analysis provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss. It is possible to lose some or all of your invested capital. The analysis is based on historical price data and technical indicators. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market conditions can change rapidly, and any trading strategy can become unprofitable. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility. You should carefully consider your financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any trades. It is essential to conduct your own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Do not rely solely on the information provided here. There is no guarantee that the trading strategy described will be profitable. You use this information at your own risk. We are not liable for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. In essence: Trading is risky. This analysis is just one perspective. Do your homework, understand the risks, and only trade with money you can afford to lose.